WHERE GOES SCOTLAND?

David Cameron has pledged to stay on as Prime Minister of the UK, if Scotland becomes independent as a result of next week’s referendum; but he urged voters not to break up the union just to give the ‘Tories’ a boost. An emotional  David Cameron at one point appeared close to tears as he spoke about the “heartbreak” he would feel, if Scotland voted for independence, articulated in a speech at Edinburgh a few days ago.

“If Scotland votes for separation that would have to be respected by the rest of the United Kingdom. And as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom I would have to make that happen.”

However, he warned that a decision on independence is irreversible and has ramifications which will last for a century. The Prime Minister said that nobody should “lecture” or “hector” the people of Scotland as it is “their decision”. He said a No vote will be “the best of both worlds” as the Scottish government will be given extra powers by Westminster.

He also warned that Scotland could “run out of money” if it goes independent. MPs and ministers have warned that Mr Cameron will come under intense pressure to resign if Scotland leaves the UK.

Me Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg decided not to attend Prime Ministers’ questions today and instead visit Scotland in a bid to take momentum away from Mr Salmond’s ( Chief Minister of Scotland) campaign.

An independent pollster, Survaton,  pointed out of late that there is a negative poll recorded recently; 47.6% of persons plan to vote ‘No” when polling begins on September 18. However at this time the “Yes” answer is in the forefront, close to 48.5%, so the feeling among Scottish voters is still uncertain and in the balance, where the referendum is concerned.

One of the considerations is money, or capital, to put the Country on its feet; and Scotland would need GBP130 billion to become financially viable.

One of the interesting results of the poll, shows that women are ahead of men in the count of votes, by some 1.50%. One of the fears is that the monarchy will be weakened as some of the Queen’s favourite properties are in Scotland; including the summer castle at Balmoral, where the Royal family often resides. This property which is operational as a developing business is owned by the family and not by the crown.

A foremost American economist, and the present Governor of Britain’s central bank, both believe that Scotland cannot use the U.K. pound sterling as its currency. The comparisons with Canada are presented as a suitable basis for making the “yes” decision. Canada is indeed a highly prosperous and steady economy, and has successfully woven its economy slightly left of the USA.

Canada’s productivity and GDP is not as high as the US, and it has its own currency, and is able to assist any of its troubled banks. This also means it controls the issuance of its currency, and probably would not ‘run out’. The combination of political independency and a shared currency is a recipe for disaster (P.Krugman, Sept 7, NYT). However the Scottish Banks have indicated that there is a doubt that Scotland will be viable without England, and have indicated they will move out if Independence is obtained, which suggests that they are supporting the status quo. These would be RBS and Lloyd’s Bank.

Is the Caribbean affected? The Caribbean at the start, provided England’s most productive and lucrative properties. In the early 1600’s, the English colonised St. Lucia(1604)  and Grenada (1609) then St. Kitts, Barbados, and Nevis. Then Parliament decreed that only English Ships must accept cargo for delivery, causing numerous conflicts with the Dutch. England adopted the slave labour policies of the Portuguese and operated successful sugar plantations thereafter. Then England colonised Jamaica and the Bahamas increasing their sugar producing capacity and resulting in financial success.

Slavery then became the basis of the British Empire, as Britain transported around 3.5 million African slaves in the period to Emancipation. Scotland made its own try starting in Panama, but disease forced abandonment. With the proximity of Scotland and England, this persuaded the two Governments to form a Union in 1707, known as Great Britain.

This creates the query, between 1707 and 2014, who benefitted and to what extent? Will the present associates agree on a formula for reparations, or any other liabilities?  The Chief Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond commented a few days ago regarding Britain’s national debt, that Scotland might not pay any share of national debt , and “What are they going to do about that, Invade?”

All the action remains until September 18, 2014.

 

 

 

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